AFL · ROUND 9 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Essendon
Sat 9 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GWS by 42
GWS to win, 92% chance
GWS 92%8% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 28.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 29.9 | 25.7 to 34.0 | 19.5 to 40.3 | 99% | 94% | 78% | 49% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 28.9 | 24.8 to 33.0 | 18.7 to 39.1 | 99% | 92% | 73% | 43% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFR | 28.5 | 24.4 to 32.6 | 18.3 to 38.7 | 98% | 91% | 71% | 40% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Lachie Ash | INT | 28.3 | 24.2 to 32.3 | 18.1 to 38.4 | 98% | 91% | 70% | 39% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 22.3 | 18.7 to 25.9 | 13.3 to 31.3 | 91% | 66% | 31% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 10.0 to 26.4 | 74% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 17.9 | 14.6 to 21.1 | 9.8 to 26.0 | 72% | 33% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Brent Daniels | CHF | 16.4 | 13.2 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.1 | 61% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.5 to 24.0 | 60% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Joe Fonti | CHB | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.4 to 23.9 | 60% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 15.8 | 12.8 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.5 | 57% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 14.5 | 11.6 to 17.5 | 7.2 to 21.9 | 46% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.2 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| James Leake | INT | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.7 | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | FPR | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.6 | 5.2 to 18.6 | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.3 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Toby McMullin | WL | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.3 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.2 | 5.0 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFL | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPL | 9.6 | 7.2 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.7 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Oliver Hannaford | INT | 9.0 | 6.7 to 11.4 | 3.2 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | INT | 7.1 | 5.0 to 9.2 | 1.9 to 12.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 28.0 | 23.9 to 32.0 | 17.9 to 38.1 | 98% | 90% | 69% | 37% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 42.0 |
| Darcy Parish | C | 27.6 | 23.6 to 31.7 | 17.6 to 37.7 | 98% | 89% | 67% | 35% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 26.8 | 22.8 to 30.7 | 16.9 to 36.6 | 97% | 87% | 62% | 30% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 23.8 | 20.0 to 27.5 | 14.5 to 33.1 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 21.5 | 17.9 to 25.0 | 12.6 to 30.4 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.2 to 26.6 | 75% | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.4 | 9.9 to 26.3 | 73% | 35% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Sam Durham | R | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.3 | 9.9 to 26.2 | 73% | 35% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 17.8 | 14.6 to 21.1 | 9.7 to 25.9 | 71% | 33% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.1 | 61% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.3 | 7.7 to 22.8 | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.7 | 6.7 to 21.0 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.4 | 5.8 to 19.5 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.7 | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 9.5 | 7.1 to 11.9 | 3.5 to 15.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.4 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 9.0 | 6.7 to 11.4 | 3.2 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Archer May | FPL | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.3 | 2.5 to 13.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |