AFL · ROUND 9 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Essendon
Sat 9 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GWS by 42
GWS to win, 92% chance
GWS 92%8% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 28.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFR | 103 | 87 to 119 | 64 to 142 | 92% | 84% | 71% | 55% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 125 |
| Lachie Ash | INT | 101 | 85 to 116 | 62 to 140 | 90% | 81% | 68% | 52% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 100 | 84 to 115 | 61 to 138 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 50% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 99 | 83 to 114 | 60 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 64% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 110 | 58% | 40% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Brent Daniels | CHF | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 56% | 37% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Joe Fonti | CHB | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 103 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Jake Riccardi | FPR | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 64 | 51 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| James Leake | INT | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 58 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPL | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFL | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Toby McMullin | WL | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 13 |
| Oliver Hannaford | INT | 46 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Max Gruzewski | INT | 43 | 30 to 55 | 12 to 73 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 99 | 83 to 114 | 60 to 138 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 111 |
| Darcy Parish | C | 95 | 80 to 111 | 57 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 59% | 42% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 94 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 40% | 25% | outside our 90% range: 157 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 92 | 77 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 83% | 70% | 54% | 36% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 77 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 71 | 57 to 86 | 36 to 106 | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Sam Durham | R | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 104 | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 69 | 55 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 60 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 93 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Archer May | FPL | 49 | 36 to 61 | 18 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 48 | 35 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 46 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 45 | 32 to 57 | 14 to 75 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 79 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 74 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |