AFL · ROUND 9 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Essendon
Sat 9 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GWS by 42
GWS to win, 92% chance
GWS 92%8% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 28.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Ash | INT | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.8 to 10.4 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 37% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.7 to 10.3 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 36% | 23% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFR | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.7 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 36% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 73% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Joe Fonti | CHB | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.7 | 72% | 58% | 43% | 29% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 71% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 68% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | FPR | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Leake | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brent Daniels | CHF | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Hannaford | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 29% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Toby McMullin | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Reid | FB | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.7 | 2.2 to 11.3 | 83% | 72% | 60% | 46% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.9 to 10.6 | 79% | 67% | 54% | 39% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.8 to 10.4 | 78% | 66% | 51% | 37% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 72% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 71% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 67% | 51% | 36% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Parish | C | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Archer May | FPL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.7 to 7.9 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Durham | R | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |