AFL · ROUND 9 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Essendon
Sat 9 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GWS by 42
GWS to win, 92% chance
GWS 92%8% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 28.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.1 | 1.5 to 9.2 | 82% | 70% | 56% | 40% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Brent Daniels | CHF | 4.2 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 70% | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.8 to 7.6 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 43% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Fonti | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby McMullin | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Ash | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Leake | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Hannaford | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Durham | R | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.5 to 6.8 | 62% | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Parish | C | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 58% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Archer May | FPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 0.8 | 0.1 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |