AFL · ROUND 9 · MCG
Geelong Cats v Collingwood
Sat 9 May 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 10
GEE to win, 64% chance
GEE 64%36% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 54
HIT Actual margin 54 · 43.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 29.3 | 25.1 to 33.4 | 19.0 to 39.6 | 99% | 93% | 75% | 45% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 40.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 28.5 | 24.5 to 32.6 | 18.4 to 38.7 | 98% | 92% | 72% | 41% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 22.2 | 18.6 to 25.8 | 13.2 to 31.2 | 90% | 66% | 31% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 21.4 | 17.9 to 25.0 | 12.6 to 30.3 | 88% | 60% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 20.7 | 17.2 to 24.2 | 12.0 to 29.4 | 86% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.6 | 10.8 to 27.6 | 79% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Bowes | WL | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.3 | 9.8 to 26.1 | 73% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.2 | 9.8 to 26.1 | 72% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 17.6 | 14.4 to 20.9 | 9.6 to 25.7 | 70% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.8 | 59% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 15.2 | 12.1 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.6 | 51% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.2 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPL | 13.9 | 11.1 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | HBFL | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.4 to 20.6 | 36% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.0 | 6.2 to 20.2 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFR | 12.2 | 9.5 to 14.9 | 5.5 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Rhys Stanley | RK | 10.4 | 7.9 to 12.9 | 4.1 to 16.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.8 to 16.0 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 9.8 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.7 to 15.9 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 9.5 | 7.1 to 11.9 | 3.5 to 15.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 30.8 | 26.6 to 35.1 | 20.3 to 41.4 | 99% | 95% | 82% | 55% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 26.7 | 22.8 to 30.7 | 16.9 to 36.6 | 97% | 87% | 61% | 29% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 22.9 | 19.2 to 26.5 | 13.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 21.5 | 17.9 to 25.0 | 12.6 to 30.4 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 20.6 | 17.1 to 24.1 | 11.9 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | INT | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.1 to 28.1 | 81% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WL | 18.5 | 15.2 to 21.8 | 10.2 to 26.7 | 75% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Ned Long | C | 17.6 | 14.3 to 20.8 | 9.5 to 25.6 | 70% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | HFFL | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.3 | 9.2 to 25.1 | 67% | 28% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 16.8 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 8.9 to 24.6 | 64% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | BPR | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.6 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | INT | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.7 | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Beau McCreery | CHF | 14.8 | 11.9 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.6 | 6.6 to 20.9 | 39% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 12.4 | 9.7 to 15.1 | 5.6 to 19.2 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Darcy Moore | FB | 9.6 | 7.2 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.7 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.2 | 3.1 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.0 | 3.0 to 14.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 8.6 | 6.3 to 10.9 | 2.9 to 14.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |