AFL · ROUND 9 · MCG
Geelong Cats v Collingwood
Sat 9 May 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 10
GEE to win, 64% chance
GEE 64%36% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 54
HIT Actual margin 54 · 43.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 112 | 95 to 128 | 71 to 152 | 96% | 90% | 81% | 68% | 52% | inside our 50% range: 127 |
| Max Holmes | R | 105 | 89 to 120 | 65 to 144 | 93% | 85% | 73% | 58% | 41% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 61% | 43% | 27% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 41 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 84 | 69 to 99 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| James Worpel | INT | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 79 | 64 to 93 | 43 to 114 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 75 | 60 to 89 | 39 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 75 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jack Bowes | WL | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Rhys Stanley | RK | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 71 | 56 to 85 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPL | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Oisin Mullin | HBFL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFR | 52 | 40 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 108 | 92 to 124 | 68 to 147 | 94% | 87% | 77% | 62% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 94 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 40% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 119 | 72% | 55% | 37% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 82 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 79 | 64 to 93 | 43 to 114 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Brayden Maynard | INT | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 114 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Ned Long | C | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WL | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Steele Sidebottom | HFFL | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Beau McCreery | CHF | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Jeremy Howe | BPR | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 107 |
| Jordan De Goey | INT | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 118 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 59 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 92 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 57 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 51 | 38 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 50 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 45 | 32 to 57 | 14 to 75 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 86 |
| Darcy Moore | FB | 39 | 27 to 51 | 10 to 69 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15 |