AFL · ROUND 9 · MCG
Geelong Cats v Collingwood
Sat 9 May 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 10
GEE to win, 64% chance
GEE 64%36% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 54
HIT Actual margin 54 · 43.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.1 | 0.1 to 4.4 | 80% | 57% | 33% | 14% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 67% | 37% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 58% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 53% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 34% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Bowes | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rhys Stanley | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 67% | 37% | 13% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 57% | 24% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 45% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | INT | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Beau McCreery | CHF | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Moore | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ned Long | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | HFFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |