AFL · ROUND 9 · MCG
Geelong Cats v Collingwood
Sat 9 May 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 10
GEE to win, 64% chance
GEE 64%36% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 54
HIT Actual margin 54 · 43.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | RR | 6.9 | 4.9 to 8.9 | 2.5 to 11.3 | 91% | 84% | 74% | 62% | 49% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.1 to 8.3 | 76% | 61% | 45% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 75% | 60% | 44% | 28% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 57% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | HBFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Bowes | WL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rhys Stanley | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ned Long | C | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 2.0 to 10.3 | 87% | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Beau McCreery | CHF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 66% | 49% | 31% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 53% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 48% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 39% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Moore | FB | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | BPR | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |