AFL · ROUND 9 · TIO STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v St Kilda
Sat 9 May 2026, 6:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 13
GCS to win, 68% chance
GCS 68%32% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 29
HIT Actual margin 29 · 16.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 28.9 | 24.7 to 33.0 | 18.6 to 39.1 | 99% | 92% | 73% | 43% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 26.0 | 22.1 to 29.9 | 16.3 to 35.7 | 97% | 84% | 57% | 25% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| John Noble | INT | 26.0 | 22.1 to 29.9 | 16.2 to 35.7 | 97% | 84% | 56% | 25% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 25.3 | 21.5 to 29.2 | 15.7 to 34.9 | 96% | 82% | 52% | 21% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 21.9 | 18.3 to 25.5 | 12.9 to 30.9 | 90% | 64% | 29% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 20.5 | 17.0 to 24.0 | 11.8 to 29.2 | 85% | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.3 | 11.3 to 28.4 | 82% | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.6 | 10.1 to 26.5 | 75% | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Alex Davies | INT | 17.6 | 14.3 to 20.8 | 9.5 to 25.6 | 70% | 31% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 16.8 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 8.9 to 24.7 | 64% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 16.5 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.3 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFL | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 48% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | R | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.4 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.7 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | CHF | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 18.9 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ben Long | HFFR | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | FPL | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.3 to 16.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ethan Read | FPR | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.0 | 4.2 to 16.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 4.1 to 16.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.7 to 16.0 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 8.9 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ben Jepson | INT | 8.5 | 6.2 to 10.7 | 2.8 to 14.1 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 28.8 | 24.7 to 32.9 | 18.6 to 39.0 | 99% | 92% | 73% | 42% | 16% | - |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 28.7 | 24.6 to 32.8 | 18.5 to 38.9 | 99% | 92% | 72% | 42% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 24.5 | 20.7 to 28.3 | 15.0 to 33.9 | 95% | 78% | 46% | 17% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 24.3 | 20.5 to 28.1 | 14.9 to 33.7 | 95% | 77% | 45% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 24.2 | 20.4 to 27.9 | 14.8 to 33.5 | 94% | 76% | 44% | 15% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 22.7 | 19.1 to 26.4 | 13.6 to 31.8 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 22.4 | 18.8 to 26.1 | 13.4 to 31.5 | 91% | 67% | 32% | 9% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 21.5 | 17.9 to 25.0 | 12.6 to 30.3 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 18.7 | 15.4 to 22.0 | 10.4 to 27.0 | 77% | 40% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.2 to 25.2 | 67% | 28% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 17.0 | 13.9 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 25.0 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 16.7 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.8 to 24.5 | 64% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 16.4 | 13.2 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.1 | 61% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.3 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.5 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 39% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 13.7 | 10.9 to 16.6 | 6.6 to 20.9 | 39% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 11.9 | 9.3 to 14.6 | 5.2 to 18.6 | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Dougal Howard | FPR | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.4 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | HFFL | 10.0 | 7.6 to 12.5 | 3.9 to 16.2 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.1 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |