AFL · ROUND 9 · TIO STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v St Kilda
Sat 9 May 2026, 6:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 13
GCS to win, 68% chance
GCS 68%32% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 29
HIT Actual margin 29 · 16.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 96 | 81 to 112 | 58 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 60% | 43% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 55% | 38% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| John Noble | INT | 91 | 76 to 106 | 53 to 128 | 82% | 68% | 51% | 34% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 135 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 126 | 80% | 65% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 84 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Alex Davies | INT | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 53% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 32 |
| Bailey Humphrey | R | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 103 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 67 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Will Graham | HFFL | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 61 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Ben Long | HFFR | 58 | 45 to 72 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | FPL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Ethan Read | FPR | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8 |
| Ben King | FF | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Leonardo Lombard | CHF | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Ben Jepson | INT | 41 | 29 to 53 | 11 to 70 | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 104 | 88 to 120 | 65 to 143 | 92% | 84% | 72% | 57% | 40% | - |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 102 | 87 to 118 | 64 to 142 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 54% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 91 | 76 to 106 | 53 to 128 | 82% | 68% | 52% | 34% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 77% | 61% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 78% | 62% | 45% | 28% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 119 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 85 | 70 to 99 | 48 to 121 | 74% | 58% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 84 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 56% | 39% | 23% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 21 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 78 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 113 | 64% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Max Hall | C | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 65 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Dougal Howard | FPR | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Liam O'Connell | HFFL | 47 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 74 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |