AFL · ROUND 9 · TIO STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v St Kilda
Sat 9 May 2026, 6:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 13
GCS to win, 68% chance
GCS 68%32% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 29
HIT Actual margin 29 · 16.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben King | FF | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 75% | 49% | 24% | 8% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | FPL | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 71% | 42% | 18% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | R | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 59% | 26% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Long | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 59% | 26% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ethan Read | FPR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 47% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | CHF | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 26% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Davies | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Jepson | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| John Noble | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 60% | 27% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 61% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 34% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Liam Henry | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dougal Howard | FPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | HFFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |