AFL · ROUND 9 · TIO STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v St Kilda
Sat 9 May 2026, 6:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 13
GCS to win, 68% chance
GCS 68%32% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 29
HIT Actual margin 29 · 16.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Davies | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 75% | 61% | 44% | 29% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | R | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 47% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | CHF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Long | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| John Noble | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Jepson | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | FPL | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ethan Read | FPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 0.7 | 0.1 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.4 to 9.0 | 80% | 68% | 52% | 37% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.4 to 8.9 | 80% | 67% | 52% | 37% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.3 | 56% | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 55% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 48% | 29% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 46% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 47% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | - |
| Liam O'Connell | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dougal Howard | FPR | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |