AFL · ROUND 9 · MARVEL STADIUM
Melbourne v West Coast Eagles
Sun 10 May 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 48
MEL to win, 94% chance
MEL 94%6% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 32
HIT Actual margin 32 · 15.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 24.7 | 20.9 to 28.5 | 15.2 to 34.2 | 95% | 79% | 48% | 18% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Jake Bowey | INT | 22.9 | 19.2 to 26.6 | 13.8 to 32.0 | 92% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFR | 22.4 | 18.8 to 26.0 | 13.4 to 31.4 | 91% | 67% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.1 | 16.6 to 23.5 | 11.5 to 28.7 | 83% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFL | 19.8 | 16.3 to 23.2 | 11.2 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 16% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.3 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 16% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | HBFL | 17.7 | 14.4 to 20.9 | 9.6 to 25.8 | 71% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 16.5 | 13.4 to 19.7 | 8.7 to 24.3 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.4 | 8.5 to 24.0 | 60% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.4 | 8.5 to 24.1 | 61% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 42% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Kade Chandler | R | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 42% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 39% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.3 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Andy Moniz-Wakefield | INT | 13.1 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.1 | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 12.2 | 9.5 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.3 | 5.0 to 18.3 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 4.0 to 16.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.6 | 3.9 to 16.3 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.5 | 3.9 to 16.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jed Adams | INT | 9.5 | 7.0 to 11.9 | 3.5 to 15.4 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Max Heath | INT | 7.7 | 5.5 to 9.9 | 2.2 to 13.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 7.6 | 5.4 to 9.8 | 2.2 to 13.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | RR | 23.7 | 20.0 to 27.5 | 14.4 to 33.0 | 94% | 74% | 41% | 14% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 22.6 | 19.0 to 26.3 | 13.5 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | WL | 22.3 | 18.7 to 26.0 | 13.3 to 31.4 | 91% | 66% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 20.9 | 17.4 to 24.4 | 12.2 to 29.7 | 86% | 57% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Ryan Maric | WR | 20.9 | 17.4 to 24.4 | 12.2 to 29.7 | 86% | 57% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 20.3 | 16.9 to 23.8 | 11.7 to 28.9 | 84% | 52% | 19% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFR | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 10.9 to 27.7 | 80% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 18.5 | 15.2 to 21.8 | 10.3 to 26.8 | 76% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 17.4 | 14.2 to 20.6 | 9.4 to 25.4 | 69% | 30% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.2 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Clay Hall | INT | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.7 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Brady Hough | HBFL | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.3 | 7.8 to 22.8 | 53% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Milan Murdock | HFFL | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 51% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 14.6 | 11.7 to 17.6 | 7.3 to 22.0 | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Bo Allan | INT | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 42% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.2 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jack Hutchinson | INT | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.0 | 6.2 to 20.2 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | BPR | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.8 | 6.1 to 20.0 | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.3 | 5.7 to 19.4 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.6 to 19.3 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.7 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 10.2 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 4.0 to 16.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Harry Edwards | FB | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.7 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 9.6 | 7.2 to 12.0 | 3.6 to 15.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.4 | 3.2 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 9.1 | 6.8 to 11.5 | 3.2 to 15.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |