AFL · ROUND 9 · MARVEL STADIUM
Melbourne v West Coast Eagles
Sun 10 May 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 48
MEL to win, 94% chance
MEL 94%6% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 32
HIT Actual margin 32 · 15.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 101 | 86 to 117 | 62 to 140 | 91% | 82% | 68% | 52% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 100 | 84 to 116 | 61 to 139 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 50% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFR | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 128 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Jake Bowey | INT | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 78% | 63% | 46% | 29% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 114 |
| Caleb Windsor | HBFL | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 99 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Kade Chandler | R | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 62 | 48 to 76 | 28 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 93 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Max Heath | INT | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 54 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 96 |
| Andy Moniz-Wakefield | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 48 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Jed Adams | INT | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 75 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 43 | 31 to 56 | 13 to 74 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | RR | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 60% | 43% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Tom McCarthy | WL | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 60% | 43% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 83 | 68 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 81 | 66 to 96 | 45 to 117 | 69% | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Ryan Maric | WR | 80 | 65 to 94 | 43 to 116 | 67% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 77 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 113 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFR | 77 | 63 to 92 | 41 to 113 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 56% | 37% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Milan Murdock | HFFL | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Brady Hough | HBFL | 62 | 48 to 76 | 28 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Clay Hall | INT | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Bo Allan | INT | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Jack Hutchinson | INT | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Reuben Ginbey | BPR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 50 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 50 | 37 to 63 | 18 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 47 | 34 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 46 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Harry Edwards | FB | 41 | 29 to 53 | 11 to 71 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8 |