AFL · ROUND 9 · MARVEL STADIUM
Melbourne v West Coast Eagles
Sun 10 May 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 48
MEL to win, 94% chance
MEL 94%6% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 32
HIT Actual margin 32 · 15.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 62% | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 57% | 24% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 43% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 38% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kade Chandler | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andy Moniz-Wakefield | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ed Langdon | HFFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Bowey | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jed Adams | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 2.3 | 1.4 to 3.1 | 0.1 to 4.4 | 79% | 57% | 32% | 13% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Milan Murdock | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 45% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bo Allan | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Brady Hough | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Clay Hall | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Hamish Davis | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Edwards | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Hutchinson | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Maric | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | WL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |