AFL · ROUND 9 · MARVEL STADIUM
Melbourne v West Coast Eagles
Sun 10 May 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 48
MEL to win, 94% chance
MEL 94%6% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 32
HIT Actual margin 32 · 15.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Lever | FB | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 2.0 to 11.0 | 81% | 70% | 57% | 44% | 30% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 16% | - |
| Ed Langdon | HFFL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 67% | 51% | 36% | 22% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.1 to 8.9 | 66% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Bowey | INT | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.4 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Andy Moniz-Wakefield | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jed Adams | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Kade Chandler | R | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | HBFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.6 | 79% | 67% | 53% | 39% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.8 to 10.4 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 37% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.6 to 10.0 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 74% | 60% | 45% | 31% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | WL | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 72% | 58% | 42% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Brady Hough | HBFL | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.4 | 70% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFR | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 67% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | BPR | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ryan Maric | WR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 58% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Edwards | FB | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Hutchinson | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.4 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | - |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bo Allan | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | - |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Clay Hall | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | - |
| Tim Kelly | R | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Milan Murdock | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |