AFL · ROUND 9 · MARVEL STADIUM
Melbourne v West Coast Eagles
Sun 10 May 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 48
MEL to win, 94% chance
MEL 94%6% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 32
HIT Actual margin 32 · 15.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 6.6 | 4.7 to 8.6 | 2.3 to 10.9 | 89% | 82% | 71% | 58% | 45% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 77% | 64% | 48% | 32% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.6 to 7.1 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Kade Chandler | R | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 57% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | HBFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Bowey | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Andy Moniz-Wakefield | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Langford | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Luker Kentfield | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jed Adams | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Daniel Turner | BPL | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jake Lever | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliot Yeo | C | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.8 | 79% | 66% | 51% | 36% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Milan Murdock | HFFL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 53% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 47% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Clay Hall | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 41% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Willem Duursma | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 41% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 36% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Hutchinson | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bo Allan | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Ryan Maric | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Brady Hough | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | BPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Edwards | FB | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |