AFL · ROUND 9 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Sydney Swans
Sat 9 May 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 19
SYD to win, 75% chance
NM 25%75% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 8
HIT Actual margin 8 · 11.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 31.3 | 27.0 to 35.5 | 20.6 to 41.9 | 99% | 96% | 83% | 58% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 27.3 | 23.3 to 31.3 | 17.4 to 37.2 | 98% | 88% | 65% | 33% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 25.4 | 21.6 to 29.3 | 15.8 to 35.1 | 96% | 82% | 53% | 22% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 25.2 | 21.4 to 29.1 | 15.6 to 34.8 | 96% | 81% | 52% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 24.2 | 20.5 to 28.0 | 14.8 to 33.6 | 95% | 77% | 45% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 20.8 | 17.3 to 24.3 | 12.1 to 29.5 | 86% | 56% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.6 | 11.5 to 28.7 | 84% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | C | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.3 | 11.3 to 28.4 | 82% | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.8 | 10.2 to 26.7 | 75% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.2 to 26.6 | 75% | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.8 | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 15.7 | 12.7 to 18.8 | 8.1 to 23.4 | 56% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 12.7 | 10.0 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 12.4 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.6 to 19.3 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 11.7 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 11.1 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.6 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.1 | 4.3 to 16.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.4 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.6 | 3.9 to 16.3 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Wil Dawson | BPL | 8.3 | 6.1 to 10.6 | 2.7 to 14.0 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.3 | 2.5 to 13.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 7.6 | 5.4 to 9.8 | 2.2 to 13.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin McInerney | R | 24.9 | 21.1 to 28.8 | 15.4 to 34.5 | 96% | 80% | 50% | 19% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 24.4 | 20.6 to 28.2 | 15.0 to 33.9 | 95% | 78% | 46% | 17% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 23.9 | 20.1 to 27.6 | 14.6 to 33.2 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Callum Mills | CHB | 22.7 | 19.1 to 26.4 | 13.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 22.0 | 18.4 to 25.6 | 13.1 to 31.0 | 90% | 64% | 30% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 21.3 | 17.7 to 24.8 | 12.4 to 30.1 | 88% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 19.4 | 16.0 to 22.8 | 10.9 to 27.8 | 80% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.4 | 10.6 to 27.4 | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.4 | 9.9 to 26.3 | 73% | 35% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 16.8 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 8.9 to 24.6 | 64% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.4 | 8.5 to 24.1 | 61% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Tom Papley | CHF | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.4 to 23.9 | 60% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.0 | 8.3 to 23.6 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 51% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 42% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | WL | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | FPR | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 11.7 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Hayden McLean | FF | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.5 | 3.9 to 16.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.4 | 3.8 to 16.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lewis Melican | FB | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.3 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 9.3 | 6.9 to 11.7 | 3.4 to 15.2 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.3 | 2.5 to 13.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |