AFL · ROUND 9 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Sydney Swans
Sat 9 May 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 19
SYD to win, 75% chance
NM 25%75% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 8
HIT Actual margin 8 · 11.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 112 | 96 to 129 | 72 to 152 | 96% | 91% | 82% | 69% | 54% | inside our 50% range: 127 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 104 | 88 to 120 | 65 to 143 | 92% | 84% | 72% | 56% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 99 | 84 to 115 | 61 to 138 | 89% | 80% | 66% | 49% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 116 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 95 | 80 to 111 | 57 to 134 | 86% | 74% | 59% | 42% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 118 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 90 | 75 to 106 | 53 to 128 | 81% | 68% | 51% | 34% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 61% | 43% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 84 | 69 to 99 | 48 to 121 | 74% | 57% | 40% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 77 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 113 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | C | 76 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 76 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 72 | 57 to 86 | 37 to 106 | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 65 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 110 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 49 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 45 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Wil Dawson | BPL | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 96 | 81 to 112 | 58 to 135 | 87% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 28% | outside our 90% range: 54 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 91 | 76 to 106 | 54 to 129 | 82% | 69% | 52% | 35% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 84 | 70 to 99 | 48 to 121 | 74% | 58% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 84 | 69 to 99 | 48 to 121 | 74% | 57% | 40% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Chad Warner | C | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 119 | 72% | 55% | 37% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Callum Mills | CHB | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 28 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 40 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 103 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 68 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Tom Papley | CHF | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Hayden McLean | FF | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 60 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 59 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Harry Cunningham | WL | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Malcolm Rosas | FPR | 52 | 40 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 48 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Lewis Melican | FB | 37 | 25 to 49 | 8 to 66 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |