AFL · ROUND 9 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Sydney Swans
Sat 9 May 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 19
SYD to win, 75% chance
NM 25%75% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 8
HIT Actual margin 8 · 11.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Larkey | FF | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 74% | 48% | 22% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 68% | 39% | 15% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 63% | 31% | 9% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 47% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 47% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | C | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Wil Dawson | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Papley | CHF | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 63% | 32% | 10% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 61% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 54% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Hayden McLean | FF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | FPR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 53% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Mills | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lewis Melican | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| William Edwards | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |