AFL · ROUND 9 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Sydney Swans
Sat 9 May 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 19
SYD to win, 75% chance
NM 25%75% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 8
HIT Actual margin 8 · 11.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 6.7 | 4.8 to 8.7 | 2.4 to 11.1 | 90% | 82% | 72% | 60% | 46% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.4 to 9.0 | 80% | 67% | 52% | 37% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.1 to 8.3 | 76% | 61% | 45% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 4.3 | 2.8 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 58% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 52% | 32% | 17% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | C | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 42% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 2.0 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Wil Dawson | BPL | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Rowbottom | INT | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.8 | 2.4 to 11.1 | 90% | 83% | 73% | 60% | 47% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 68% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 67% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 3.8 | 2.4 to 5.3 | 0.6 to 7.1 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 57% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | FPR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 36% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Papley | CHF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Mills | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | WL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hayden McLean | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lewis Melican | FB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 1.0 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |