AFL · ROUND 9 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs
Fri 8 May 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
PA by 1
PA to win, 51% chance
PA 51%49% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 2.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 29.7 | 25.6 to 33.9 | 19.4 to 40.1 | 99% | 94% | 77% | 48% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 24.7 | 20.9 to 28.5 | 15.2 to 34.2 | 95% | 79% | 48% | 18% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 24.3 | 20.5 to 28.1 | 14.9 to 33.7 | 95% | 77% | 45% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 20.7 | 17.2 to 24.2 | 12.0 to 29.4 | 86% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 19.5 | 16.1 to 22.9 | 11.1 to 28.0 | 81% | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | INT | 18.9 | 15.6 to 22.3 | 10.6 to 27.3 | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.4 | 8.5 to 24.0 | 60% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.7 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 7.9 to 23.1 | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.5 | 51% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 14.7 | 11.8 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 48% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.5 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 38% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 13.1 | 10.3 to 15.9 | 6.1 to 20.1 | 33% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.8 | 6.0 to 20.0 | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 12.4 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.6 to 19.2 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 11.7 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.2 | 5.0 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 8.0 | 5.8 to 10.3 | 2.5 to 13.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 7.5 | 5.3 to 9.6 | 2.1 to 12.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 27.1 | 23.1 to 31.1 | 17.2 to 37.0 | 98% | 88% | 63% | 32% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 24.8 | 21.0 to 28.6 | 15.3 to 34.3 | 95% | 80% | 49% | 19% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 24.6 | 20.8 to 28.4 | 15.2 to 34.1 | 95% | 79% | 47% | 18% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 24.2 | 20.4 to 27.9 | 14.8 to 33.5 | 94% | 77% | 44% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 22.7 | 19.0 to 26.4 | 13.6 to 31.8 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 20.3 | 16.9 to 23.8 | 11.7 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 19% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 17.8 | 14.5 to 21.0 | 9.7 to 25.9 | 71% | 33% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Joel Freijah | FPL | 17.6 | 14.4 to 20.9 | 9.6 to 25.7 | 70% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 24.9 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 16.5 | 13.4 to 19.7 | 8.7 to 24.4 | 63% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.0 | 6.9 to 21.4 | 42% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.7 to 21.0 | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 13.7 | 10.9 to 16.6 | 6.6 to 20.9 | 39% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harvey Gallagher | INT | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | CHB | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPR | 12.4 | 9.7 to 15.1 | 5.6 to 19.2 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | HFFR | 10.5 | 8.0 to 13.1 | 4.2 to 16.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 10.4 | 7.9 to 13.0 | 4.2 to 16.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.4 | 3.8 to 16.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 9.9 | 7.5 to 12.4 | 3.8 to 16.0 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.7 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Lachlan Smith | INT | 9.5 | 7.1 to 11.9 | 3.5 to 15.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 8.1 | 5.9 to 10.3 | 2.5 to 13.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |