AFL · ROUND 9 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs
Fri 8 May 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
PA by 1
PA to win, 51% chance
PA 51%49% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 2.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 146 | 93% | 86% | 75% | 60% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 98 | 82 to 113 | 59 to 136 | 88% | 78% | 63% | 46% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 126 | 80% | 65% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 83 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 22% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 122 |
| Willem Drew | R | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 120 | 72% | 55% | 38% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Jase Burgoyne | INT | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 72 | 58 to 87 | 37 to 108 | 55% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 103 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 65 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 102 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 111 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 57 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 56 | 42 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 49 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 99 | 83 to 114 | 60 to 138 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 48% | 32% | outside our 90% range: 143 |
| Ed Richards | R | 95 | 80 to 111 | 57 to 134 | 86% | 75% | 59% | 42% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 38% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 92 | 77 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 83% | 70% | 53% | 36% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Tim English | RK | 92 | 77 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 83% | 70% | 53% | 36% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 82 | 67 to 96 | 46 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 78 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Joel Freijah | FPL | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 114 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 64 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 30 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 60 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 58 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Jedd Busslinger | CHB | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Harvey Gallagher | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Nick Coffield | BPR | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 79 | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Cooper Hynes | HFFR | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 46 | 34 to 59 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 74 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 75 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Lachlan Smith | INT | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |