AFL · ROUND 9 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs
Fri 8 May 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
PA by 1
PA to win, 51% chance
PA 51%49% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 2.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.0 | 0.1 to 4.3 | 79% | 56% | 31% | 12% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 74% | 47% | 22% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 51% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Freijah | FPL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Gallagher | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Smith | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tim English | RK | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |