AFL · ROUND 9 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs
Fri 8 May 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
PA by 1
PA to win, 51% chance
PA 51%49% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 2
MISS Actual margin 2 · 2.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 6.9 | 4.8 to 8.9 | 2.3 to 11.5 | 84% | 74% | 62% | 48% | 35% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.7 | 72% | 58% | 43% | 29% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 67% | 51% | 36% | 22% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | INT | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.7 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 61% | 45% | 29% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 59% | 43% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Lachie Jones | FB | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Williams | WR | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.0 to 10.9 | 81% | 70% | 56% | 42% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPR | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.4 | 70% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 68% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 68% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 65% | 49% | 34% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | CHB | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 53% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joel Freijah | FPL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Smith | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Harvey Gallagher | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Arthur Jones | WL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |