AFL · ROUND 9 · MCG
Richmond v Adelaide Crows
Sun 10 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 31
ADE to win, 85% chance
RIC 15%85% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 37
HIT Actual margin 37 · 6.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 25.9 | 22.1 to 29.9 | 16.2 to 35.7 | 97% | 84% | 56% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 24.6 | 20.8 to 28.4 | 15.2 to 34.1 | 95% | 79% | 47% | 18% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 23.7 | 20.0 to 27.4 | 14.4 to 33.0 | 94% | 74% | 41% | 14% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Jayden Short | HBFL | 22.1 | 18.5 to 25.7 | 13.1 to 31.1 | 90% | 65% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WR | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.7 | 10.9 to 27.7 | 80% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 18.5 | 15.2 to 21.8 | 10.2 to 26.7 | 75% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Sam Grlj | CHB | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 10.1 to 26.4 | 74% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 17.6 | 14.4 to 20.8 | 9.5 to 25.6 | 70% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.3 | 9.2 to 25.0 | 67% | 28% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 16.7 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 8.8 to 24.6 | 64% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | HFFR | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.4 | 8.5 to 24.1 | 61% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPR | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.2 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| James Trezise | INT | 13.8 | 11.0 to 16.7 | 6.7 to 21.0 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 13.6 | 10.8 to 16.5 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 38% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.4 to 20.6 | 36% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPL | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.3 | 5.7 to 19.5 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | INT | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tom Burton | INT | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFL | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.6 to 17.4 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 9.8 | 7.4 to 12.2 | 3.7 to 15.9 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.1 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | RK | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.1 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 8.3 | 6.0 to 10.5 | 2.6 to 13.9 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 8.3 | 6.1 to 10.6 | 2.7 to 14.0 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 8.2 | 5.9 to 10.4 | 2.6 to 13.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 24.8 | 21.0 to 28.6 | 15.3 to 34.3 | 95% | 79% | 48% | 18% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 23.2 | 19.6 to 26.9 | 14.0 to 32.5 | 93% | 72% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | HFFR | 22.8 | 19.1 to 26.5 | 13.7 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 22.8 | 19.1 to 26.5 | 13.7 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 35% | 10% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Sam Berry | C | 21.2 | 17.6 to 24.7 | 12.3 to 29.9 | 87% | 58% | 24% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 21.1 | 17.5 to 24.6 | 12.3 to 29.9 | 87% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Josh Rachele | RR | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.1 | 11.2 to 28.1 | 81% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.4 | 10.0 to 26.3 | 73% | 35% | 8% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 16.7 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 8.8 to 24.6 | 64% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Billy Dowling | INT | 16.6 | 13.4 to 19.7 | 8.8 to 24.4 | 63% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.4 to 23.9 | 60% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | INT | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.9 | 60% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 8.1 to 23.3 | 56% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 8.0 to 23.1 | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 15.4 | 12.4 to 18.5 | 7.9 to 23.0 | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.5 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.4 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Hugh Bond | INT | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.0 | 4.2 to 16.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Nick Murray | CHB | 10.2 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 4.0 to 16.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 10.1 | 7.7 to 12.6 | 4.0 to 16.3 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Toby Murray | FF | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.8 to 16.0 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.4 | 3.2 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 8.3 | 6.0 to 10.5 | 2.6 to 13.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 7.3 | 5.2 to 9.4 | 2.0 to 12.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |