AFL · ROUND 9 · MCG
Richmond v Adelaide Crows
Sun 10 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 31
ADE to win, 85% chance
RIC 15%85% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 37
HIT Actual margin 37 · 6.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 92 | 77 to 108 | 55 to 130 | 84% | 71% | 54% | 37% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 91 | 76 to 106 | 53 to 128 | 82% | 68% | 51% | 34% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Jayden Short | HBFL | 90 | 74 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 80% | 66% | 49% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 86 | 72 to 101 | 50 to 124 | 77% | 61% | 44% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WR | 78 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 113 | 64% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 30 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 72 | 58 to 87 | 37 to 108 | 55% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Sam Grlj | CHB | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | - |
| Tom Brown | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 3 |
| Tyler Sonsie | HFFR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Nathan Broad | BPR | 63 | 50 to 77 | 29 to 97 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Noah Balta | BPL | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | INT | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | RK | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Tom Burton | INT | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 58 | 45 to 72 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Steely Green | HFFL | 57 | 44 to 70 | 25 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| James Trezise | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 50 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | HFFR | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 38% | 23% | outside our 90% range: 133 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 110 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 84 | 69 to 99 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 57% | 39% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 119 | 72% | 55% | 37% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 113 |
| James Peatling | INT | 79 | 64 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Sam Berry | C | 79 | 65 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Josh Rachele | RR | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 61% | 42% | 26% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 75 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 162 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Daniel Curtin | INT | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 65 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Billy Dowling | INT | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | - |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Toby Murray | FF | 48 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Hugh Bond | INT | 45 | 32 to 57 | 14 to 75 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 45 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 44 | 32 to 56 | 13 to 74 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Nick Murray | CHB | 41 | 29 to 53 | 11 to 70 | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| James Borlase | FB | 35 | 24 to 47 | 6 to 64 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |