AFL · ROUND 9 · MCG
Richmond v Adelaide Crows
Sun 10 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 31
ADE to win, 85% chance
RIC 15%85% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 37
HIT Actual margin 37 · 6.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Miller | FB | 7.0 | 4.9 to 9.0 | 2.3 to 11.6 | 84% | 75% | 63% | 49% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jayden Short | HBFL | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.8 | 2.2 to 11.3 | 83% | 72% | 60% | 46% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPR | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.9 to 10.7 | 79% | 68% | 54% | 40% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.1 | 76% | 63% | 48% | 34% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.7 | 73% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.1 to 8.9 | 65% | 49% | 34% | 20% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.0 to 8.7 | 63% | 47% | 31% | 18% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | HFFR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Sam Grlj | CHB | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.4 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | - |
| James Trezise | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.2 to 6.6 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Sam Cumming | R | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 76% | 63% | 48% | 34% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.8 | 74% | 60% | 45% | 31% | 19% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.5 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | INT | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Billy Dowling | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | - |
| Jordan Dawson | HFFR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Nick Murray | CHB | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | - |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Josh Rachele | RR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hugh Bond | INT | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Toby Murray | FF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Berry | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |